Key state may be the next Florida

By BENNETT ROTH
Copyright 2004 Houston Chronicle

DAYTON, Ohio In this industrial city once known for churning out cash registers, voters like Larry Wassell aren't feeling so flush with cash.

His employer, a commercial printing company, eliminated much of its work force in recent years. Wassell darkly joked that the only way he knows he has a job each day is "when you log in, you find your user name still valid."

He wasn't buying President Bush's reassurance that the economy is on the mend.

"I want to know what planet he is living on," Wassell, a 54-year-old engineer, said as he ate lunch with three equally glum colleagues.

Such sour sentiments about the economy are making Ohio, usually divided evenly in politics, the ground zero of the 2004 presidential election. Pollster John Zogby has said the Buckeye State may bump off Florida as the prize that swings the outcome of the national election this time.

Bush won Ohio by 4 percentage points in 2000. But the loss of 264,000 Ohio jobs in the past three years, mostly in the manufacturing sector, has given the Democrats more ammunition.

With Ohio among the 10 states holding presidential primaries Tuesday, leading Democratic contenders Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards hammered the jobs issue as they stumped frequently in the state.

Visiting shuttered steel mills and meeting with powerful trade union leaders in the Democrat-rich northern swath of the state, the candidates pledged to re-examine free trade pacts and attacked Bush for ignoring jobs being shipped abroad.

They hope the jobs message will resonate as well in other large states on Tuesday's primary schedule.

But in looking toward November, the candidates are paying particular heed to this Rust Belt giant. No Republican presidential candidate has made it to the White House without winning the state. Only two Democratic presidents in the 20th century, Franklin Roosevelt in 1944 and John F. Kennedy in 1960, lost Ohio.

GOP officials point out that the state has trended their way recently, with all major statewide offices now held by Republicans.

Ohio GOP Chairman Bob Bennett said that considering the state of the economy, "it is surprising the president is doing as well as he is."

As the economy improves during the year, Bennett predicted, so will Bush's fortunes. And, he said, the Republican Party get-out-the vote effort is better than ever.

But John Green, a University of Akron political scientist, said recent economic woes provide the Democrats with an opening.

"And that means George Bush is going to have to work really hard," he said.

An Ohio Poll by the University of Cincinnati found that 49 percent of Ohioans approve of the president's job performance, with 58 percent disapproving of his handling of the economy, his lowest ratings since taking office.

The concerned Bush campaign has decided to run TV ads promoting the president's record in Ohio and other "swing" states starting Thursday.

Republicans believe that Bush's leadership in the war on terrorism and his stands on social issues will resonate with the more conservative voters in southern Ohio.

Bush has visited Ohio more than 12 times as president. He has begun traveling across the country to gatherings of blue collar workers, warning that Democrats want to roll back his tax cuts, which he says have revived the economy.

Last week he ped by Isco Industries, a pipe manufacturing firm in neighboring Kentucky. He sat on a makeshift stage in Louisville with employees and executives who praised the tax cuts.

With an American flag draped on the factory wall and a banner proclaiming "Strengthening America's Economy" as a back, Bush said the economy has overcome the obstacles of war, recession and corporate scandals.

"Inflation is low, interest rates low, manufacturing activity is up. We're growing. The economy is getting better," Bush said before heading to a campaign fund-raiser.

But in interviews in Dayton, many voters did not share Bush's optimism although not all blame the president for the economic woes.

Eating at the Breakfast Club, a popular spot near downtown, Dan McLaughlin, a 37-year-old production manager at the Dayton Ballet, said he had personally experienced the latest downturn.

The ballet recently furloughed its employees for two weeks as corporate giving declined. The father of two children, McLaughlin said it was the first time in a dozen years that he had been out of work.

"I don't see the economy getting any better," he said. Although a registered Republican, McLaughlin said he would not vote for Bush. He dismissed Bush's tax cuts as "mad money" that could be put to better use.

McLaughlin said he would likely vote for Kerry, if he is nominated, in part because he admires the Massachusetts senator's background as a decorated Vietnam veteran.

At Frickers sports bar, John Thomas, 44, said business at his firm that makes adhesive labels has been improving lately after several bad years.

And in general, he said, Bush "has been doing a good job." Thomas summed up Kerry as a "liberal Democrat from Massachusetts."

But sitting down the bar from Thomas, George Bockerstette, 49, said that although he has supported Bush, he could change his mind.

"Right now I'm voting for Bush," he said. "But it depends on what the Democrats offer. If they offer more benefits for lower-income people and less taxes for lower-income people, I wouldn't mind voting for the Democrats."

Dayton is the largest city in southwestern Ohio's Montgomery County, considered a bellwether county that went for Bush over Al Gore by less than 5,000 votes of more than 371,000 cast.

Since Bush took office, the Dayton-Springfield metropolitan area has lost 15,000 jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Among the local companies cutting their work force in recent years is NCR Corp., formerly known as the National Cash Register company. It now produces automated teller machines.

The Delphi Corp., a spinoff of General Motors that makes automotive parts, is in the process of eliminating 8,500 jobs. Kerry recently toured a razed Delphi brake plant and spoke at a United Auto Workers union hall.

Tammy Newsom, a 35-year-old Breakfast Club waitress and single mother, voted for Bush last time but said she is not likely to do so again. She characterized the tax cuts as "too little, too late," and said she doesn't like the fact that the United States military is still in Iraq.

She described as "silly" Bush's call last week for a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriages. The country has higher priorities, Newsom said, noting that her 56-year-old mother is looking for work. Newsom said she preferred Edwards over Kerry because the North Carolina senator "has the pulse of the people," while the Massachusetts senator comes across as an "opportunist."

Larry Adkisson, 27, who also works at the Breakfast Club, said that although he didn't vote for the president, he admired the way he handled the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, particularly when he visited firefighters at the devastated site of the World Trade Center.

"I felt he really cared," Adkisson said. But since that time, Adkisson said, Bush has appeared scripted and unresponsive to the public.

"It seems like he is almost robotic," Adkisson said.

The trend of U.S. companies moving production plants and services abroad also drew criticism from voters such as Jeremiah Nickols, 26, a computer specialist at the General Motors plant.

"We used to call our help desk and get someone in Texas, now you get someone in India," said Nickols, eating lunch at Frickers, which advertises that "NASCAR fans are welcome." Despite unhappiness with such outsourcing, Nichols said he will still vote for Bush, calling the president "the lesser of the evils."

The economy is not the only subject on the minds of voters.

The protracted military operation in Iraq and Bush's justification for it also came up.

"I am not a Bush fan. I think he lied about the war," said Dixie Warner, 66, a retired teacher eating at the Breakfast Club with friend Barbara Albers.

Although Albers, 68, said she still supported Bush, she was disturbed about a number of his policies.

"I know we had to get rid of Saddam. But every day I hear another American soldier killed, I cringe," she said.