Analyst: Brace for Election Day delay

No prediction made, with paper ballots, Colorado, technology affecting vote

By GEORGIANA VINES, KnoxNews October 16, 2004

Paper ballots, new technology and a Colorado initiative could result in the race between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry on Nov. 2 not being known the morning after the election, Charlie Cook, a nationally known political analyst, told a Knoxville audience Friday.

A number of elections have been close, but with the exception of the 2000 campaign between Bush and Democrat Al Gore, the results were generally known around breakfast time following Election Day, he said.  
The last presidential election wasn't known for 36 days and finally was decided by 537 votes in Florida and a U.S. Supreme Court decision.

"It could be either (way)," he told some 200 persons at a luncheon hosted by the Knoxville Area Chamber Partnership at the downtown Hilton Hotel.

Cook, who writes The Cook Political Report and is an analyst for NBC News and the National Journal Group, mentioned these factors in a possible delay of the results:

30 percent of the voters in Ohio, a battleground state, will use paper ballots.

New technology in voting machines will be unfamiliar to temporary workers, whose average age is 74. "I think there are going to be some problems," he said.

The state of Colorado has a voter initiative allowing votes in the Electoral College to be divided proportionately. It goes into effect immediately so could mean a legal challenge if it passes.

Cook declined to pick between Bush and Kerry because it is so close. He gave these reasons:

Voter registration is up, and it is not known for whom these voters will vote.

Young voters, ages 18-24, rarely vote, although there are signs they will this year. He humorously described them as those whose furniture is usually made of "milk crates and cinder blocks" until they get a home and buy real furniture. That's when they begin to vote.

Eight percent to nine percent of those who have telephones don't have landlines and use cell phones, so they are not included in polls trying to determine the outcome. (Survey researchers are prohibited from using automated dialing equipment to call wireless numbers.) This group includes a lot of young people and people who live in poor and low-income areas.

Susan Williams, a Republican operative, said she enjoyed Cook's comments, which were a mixture of humor and serious thoughts.

"He makes politics fun, and if you didn't really care about who wins the election, you would have enjoyed his remarks. I think everybody realizes it's going to be a long night," Williams said.

Jess Campbell, a lawyer and one of few known Kerry supporters at the lunch, said he felt Cook pandered to the crowd.

"The kicker as to why he can't predict (the outcome) is the mass increase in voters who have registered. There is no way to poll them. I agree (with the comments on) poor people and people with cell phones. I see a movement for John Kerry, and I think it's going to be a big win."

Cook talked in an interview after the luncheon about the undecided expected to make the difference in the close race.

He said they fall into two groups - "knuckleheads," who aren't into politics and don't keep up with issues in the media but feel it's their civic duty to vote, and people who normally vote but have an issue that "sticks in their craw."

Examples of this latter group are a Republican who disagrees with the Iraqi war or an anesthesiologist who is a Democrat and has a problem with a trial lawyer as the vice presidential nominee, Cook said.

The second group will vote, Cook said, although it's not certain the "knuckleheads" will.