Experts Fear Messy, Disorderly Election
Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:49 AM ET
By Alan Elsner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Long lines, malfunctioning machines and dueling lawyers could turn next week's U.S. presidential election and its aftermath into a disorderly and even chaotic experience, political analysts said on Tuesday.

Problems could emerge both during voting and especially after the votes are counted if the election is as close as the polls suggest.

"In any state that's close, the parties will scrutinize every precinct and every vote and the system simply can't hold up under that kind of scrutiny," said American University political scientist Allan Lichtman.

"There's going to be some voter fraud, some voter intimidation and lots of tension and snarling and mutual accusations," he said.

Problems may begin on Election Day next Tuesday with an anticipated huge turnout. Curtis Gans of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate is predicting turnout of between 118 million and 121 million, or 58 percent to 60 percent, compared to only 106 million, or 54 percent, in 2000.

"Voting places are not prepared for this turnout and there will be long lines. Good election officials will keep the polls open until everyone can vote but if they try to close them, they will be taken to court," he said.

Adding to the potential confusion, both parties are sending out vast numbers of poll watchers and lawyers to observe and possibly intervene in voting.

The Republicans aim to challenge voters who they suspect may not be qualified to cast ballots; the Democrats aim to prevent what they see as "voter intimidation" attempts to scare people, especially blacks, away from the polls.

Republican Party chairman Ed Gillespie charged on Sunday that Democratic-backed groups had registered thousands of fraudulent voters.

DICK AND MARY

In Ohio, he said there were "people with fictitious characters being registered to vote, Dick Tracy and Mary Poppins. In New Mexico, we've seen 13- and 15-year-olds get registration cards in the mail they didn't even ask for. In Nevada, we've had illegal immigrants being registered."

The Republicans have mobilized thousands of volunteers to challenge suspicious voters. But each Republican is likely to be matched by a Democratic volunteer holding a tape recorder.

The Republican Party of Ohio issued a statement on Sunday charging that the state had been a target of systematic and widespread voter registration fraud. "If any effort is made to vote illegally, it will be challenged at the voting location," it said.

Lichtman said Republicans had to be careful. They did not want news stories running through Election Day about attempts to intimidate voters that could persuade even more Democrats to turn out.

In several battleground states across the country, a consulting firm funded by the Republican National Committee has been accused of deceiving would-be voters and destroying Democratic voter registration cards.

Disputes over voters could hold up voting even more and raise the temperature in some voting places but several election officials said nobody on the election rolls would be turned away.

"If someone challenges a voter, the burden of proof is on the person making the challenge. Nobody will be turned away at the polls if they are on the voting roll," said Brian MacDonald of the Pennsylvania secretary of state's office.

Some experts believe that the threat of voter fraud is overblown and the disenfranchisement of voters through antiquated voting machines, system error and improper management of registration databases is a far bigger problem.

"Available evidence suggests that the incidence of election fraud is minimal across the 50 U.S. states and rarely affects election outcomes," wrote Barnard College political scientist Lori Minnite and David Callahan of the independent think-tank Demos in an analysis published last year.

Potential problems loom in the use both of new electronic voting machines, which have experienced problems in trial runs, and in the old punchcards that are still in use in many states and which were at the heart of the disputed election in Florida four years ago. More than 70 percent of voters in the key swing state of Ohio will still use the punch cards.

Dan Seligson, of the nonpartisan election information service electionline.org, said some problems that occurred in Florida in 2000 would not repeat themselves.

"Instead, we could find some new ones. Certainly, every vote will count. Whether it will be counted is another matter," he said.