Running in place won?t help avoid budget realities

PETER CALLAGHAN; THE Tacoma NEWS TRIBUNE
Last d: March 3rd, 2005 07:43 AM
Washington?s legislators need something to keep them busy while they wait to see how bad things really are.

So they hold committee hearings and pass a lot of bills. On Wednesday they even killed a lot of bills, those that failed to meet a self-imposed deadline for action by certain committees.

Don?t get me wrong. Someone loves and hates each and every one of these bills. Political constituencies are being rewarded and punished. It wouldn?t be difficult to find members who think their bills are the most important items on the agenda.

That said, you get the impression that for the first seven weeks of the session, the Legislature has been killing time waiting for St. Patrick?s Day. That?s when it gets a new estimate of how much revenue there is to spend over the next two years.

Legislators know it?s going to be bad. The last forecast ? and a court decision on the inheritance tax ? left the Legislature $2.2 billion short of the $25 billion needed for current programs.

Multibillion-dollar budget shortfalls are old hat for lawmakers. This is the third in the past six years. That doesn?t make them easier. Or welcome.

The most overused clich? is that the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. That is, the most obvious savings and the least painful cuts have already been used up.

Former Gov. Gary Locke and now Gov. Christine Gregoire produced budget proposals that don?t require tax increases. Each outlined cuts to education and social services that make even some fiscal conservatives cringe.

Locke couldn?t support his. Gregoire likely won?t support hers. Skeptics say each budget was drawn up to overdramatize the cuts, and that?s likely true.

A no-new-taxes budget, however, will result in noticeable cuts in programs everyone uses at one time or another.

    
Few look forward to the process. Democrats especially ? because they have majorities in both houses and the governor?s office ? know they must make program cuts or pass huge tax increases or both.

None of that is a recipe for re-election. Every vote taken is fodder for some future campaign hit piece.

Republicans enjoy one of the few benefits of losing the election; they get to watch the Democrats squirm.

But like Democrats, Republicans have constituencies that want good schools, low tuition and better roads, who care about disadvantaged people and public safety. They?ll have to explain cuts to angry citizens, too.

The optimists in town look forward to the March 17 revenue forecast, figuring there must be a pony buried in there somewhere. Maybe the economy is improving faster than previously predicted? Maybe it will predict that collections from current taxes will be more robust than thought? Maybe the shortfall will be only $2 billion instead of $2.2 billion!

Excitement over $200 million, what is cynically called ?budget dust? around here? You bet. Optimism is relative in the Legislature this year.

The pessimists don?t believe a word of it. Why should they get good news when it?s all been bad so far?

Once the forecast is official, the ugly work starts.

Gregoire will produce a real budget ? one she actually supports. The Senate and House budget committees will follow.

All three are hoping the other will provide political cover for taxes, meaning if Gregoire calls for a tax hike, it will be easier ? if only barely ? for the Legislature to do so too.

And who needs cover more: legislators, who face voters as soon as 2006, or Gregoire, who faces them in 2008, baring the revote that is talked about less and less as the session progresses?

There will be deep cuts. There will be tax increases ? or, as Democratic leaders prefer to phrase it, ?revenue.?

And in about 15 months, it will appear on a campaign hit piece in a mailbox near you.